Hand of the Day, 31 Oct 2026

Saturday, 31 October 2026. Hand of the Day number 20. Difficulty 6 of 7: the week gets harder from Monday to Sunday.

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KimRegularSaturday

Kim never shows a card until the end: you have the betting and the board to go on.

  1. PreflopRaise to 5 big blinds
  2. FlopK♣8♠Q♥Bet 2/3 pot
  3. TurnK♣8♠Q♥K♠Bet 2/3 pot
  4. RiverK♣8♠Q♥K♠4♠Bet pot

Which hand does Kim most likely have?

Show the answer

Most likely: Trips

20of 143 combos are trips
143combos left after Kim’s betting
A full housewhat Kim held

Trips is the biggest slice of the range by weight: about 3.2 of its 20 combos play this line. A queen, an eight or a pocket pair has more (54 combos) but plays it less often. Kim had Q♠ Q♣: a full house. This line is most often trips; this time it wasn’t.

Kim held Q♠Q♣

The working
  1. Range. Kim’s line leaves 143 combos, about 5.6 by weight of 1,326 143 of 1,326 combos
  2. Trips. 20 combos, about 3.2 by weight 20 of 143 combos
  3. Full house. 15 combos, about 1.5 by weight 15 of 143 combos
  4. Flush. 8 combos, about 0.5 by weight 8 of 143 combos
  5. Overpair. 6 combos, about 0.2 by weight 6 of 143 combos
  6. A queen, an eight or a pocket pair. 54 combos, about 0.1 by weight 54 of 143 combos
  7. Four of a kind. 1 combo, about 0.1 by weight 1 of 143 combos
  8. Air. 39 combos, about 0.1 by weight 39 of 143 combos
  9. By weight. Hands taken only some of the time count at part weight, so the biggest slice is the one with the most weight.
  10. By kind. Value 95%, pairs 4%, draws and bluffs 2%. The kind of hand is the read that matters most; the biggest slice is the detail.
  11. Showdown. Kim had Q♠ Q♣: Full house, 15 combos of the 143 Q♠Q♣

Then decide: call or fold?

Kim bets 60 into 60. Call or fold? Amounts are in big blinds.

The riverK♣8♠Q♥K♠4♠
Your handQ♦2♥
60the pot
60Kim’s bet
60to call
Show the answer

Folding is right

Kim’s range, from the read: 133 combos. 40 sets and better · 6 overpairs and top pair · 48 weaker pairs · 39 more

33%the price: what you need
3.7%your chance against that range

The price was too high. You needed 33%, and against what Kim likely holds you win 3.7%. Calling here would lose more than it wins over many hands, even though you would win about one time in ten.

The working
  1. The price. You call 60 to win 120 (the 60 in the pot and Kim’s 60). That is 60 ÷ (120 + 60) = 33%. To break even you need to win at least that often (pot odds). 60 to call into 120: 33%
  2. Your chance. After the read, 133 combos are left in Kim’s range. Counting every card that can still come, you win 3.7% of the time (ties count half; equity). Q♦2♥ 3.7%
  3. The comparison. 3.7% is less than 33%, so calling costs more than it wins over many hands like this one. 3.7% × 120 − 96% × 60 = −53.4 big blinds per call, on average.

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